ESTIMASI DISTRIBUSI PERJALANAN PROPINSI JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 2028 MENGGUNAKAN MODEL : SERAGAM, RATA-RATA, DETROIT, DAN FURNESS

Abstract

The Central Java Provincial Government through the Central Java Provincial Spatial Plan (RTRW) for 2009-2029, stated that one of the initial strategies for developing the area was to improve transportation facilities and infrastructure. The strategy for developing transportation facilities and infrastructure for the development of the area requires information regarding current and future conditions regarding the traffic load that will be served by the area. A trip distribution model is needed to provide data and information related to the travel load on each route for now and in the future. Therefore, the formulation of the research problem is: how to analyze the distribution of passenger trips between districts/cities in the Province of Central Java?. While the aim of the study was to analyze the origin-destination (O-D) matrix of district/city passenger trips in Central Java using the growth method. The results of the regression analysis show that the socio-economic variables that have the most influence on trip attraction and production are : gross regional domestic product (GRDP) and population size. While the estimated O-D matrix of travel in 2028 shows the most different results obtained by the uniform method and the Detroit method. While the longest iteration to reach convergence close to value 1 is the Detroit method. Research using synthetic methods, namely by considering the factors of travel impedance between zones, for example by the gravity method, needs to be done to overcome the weaknesses of the analogy method or growth factors